Sonae Capital

Foi no passado dia 23 de Junho que a Sonae Capital noticou a entrada no seu capital de um dos Value Investors mais destacados actualmente pelos media americanos: Monish Pabrai. Concretamente abriu comprou 6.87% da Sonae Capital. Monish é um indiano radicado nos Estados-Unidos, empresário, investidor, gestor de fundos e grande fã do Warren Buffett e do seu método de investimeno. Tão fã que no ano passado ofereceu mais de 600.000$ para vencer um leilão de caridade para ganhar um almoço com Buffett. Autor de 2 bons livros de investimento, o "Mosaic: Perspectives on Investing" e o "Dhandho Investor: The Low - Risk Value Method to High Returns". Neles explica o seu método de descoberta de valor seguindo a filosofia de procurar oportunidades com pouco risco, alto potencial de rentabilidade, ao preço certo.

Em Dhandho Investor, Pabrai explica que muitas das ideias que tem copia-as dos melhores investidores do mundo. Segue o que estão fazendo e se alguma oportunidade lhe desperta a curiosidade, investiga e determina o seu valor. Fontes de ideias que inuncia são sites como o http://www.gurufoscus.com/ ou http://www.valueinvestingclub.com/.

Foi justamente neste último site que tinha visto, à tempos (talvez à um ano), uma análise bastante pormenorizada da Sonae SGPS que somava todas as partes do seu negócio para chegar ao valor final. Uma dessas partes, na altura, era a Sonae Capital. Poderá ter sido esta análise, cujo autor desconheço, que despertou a curiosidade de Pabrai para este investimento, pelo que deixo-a aqui solicitando opiniões acerca da avaliação feita (os meus recursos de análise imobiliária são muito limitados) tendo em conta que o valor a que esta análise chega para a Sonae Capital é cerca de 10x a capitalização actual.

Sonae Capital (100% interest):

Includes:

- Troia resort was acquired from bankrupt company 20+ years ago and kept undeveloped until 2005. Total invested capital is €350mm (several Analysts value Sonae Capital based on invested capital). Troia is being developed on 1057 hectares of prime beach front land to accommodate five hotels with 2,230 rooms, 650 apartments (three already built but will require refurbishment), 330 villas, five golf courses, marina, casino and congress center. The area is expected to be the 2nd largest tourist destination in tourism-dependent Portugal (appointed “project of national interest” status by government).

* For hotels, I assume 80% occupancy @ €200 room/day and 30% EBITDA margins and hotel peer group multiple of 12x (will likely warrant a premium multiple and higher margins as it will have lower cost base from freeloading on high-cost leisure activities already in place at “exclusive” Troia resort);
* For 650 tourism apartments, I assume 80% occupancy @ €325 apartment/day and 30% EBITDA margins using 10.0x multiple;
* For villas, I use current average selling price of pre-sells at €4,234 / sqm, 110 sqm average size of villas and 330 units;
* I value the golf courses at €121mm based on EV of 5 golf courses recently acquired in Portugal (average 6.17mts) for €121mm (Sonae golf courses average 6.320mts and are in more prized location);
* I assume conservative €7,000 / acre for remaining 617 hectares of undeveloped land (1057 – 440 = 617) based on undeveloped coastal property values in southern Portugal;
* I ascribe no value to two significant future development projects including a 20% stake in a 955 bed project including hotel with 300 beds and 100% stake in 3,322 beds including 360 villas and two hotels.

I therefore derive value for Troia Resorts on a sum-of-parts basis well north of €1.0bn.

- Contacto is civil engineering firm I value around €200mm using 1.3x 2006 sales;
- TP is energy company with ownership in a 1200MW wind power plant that I value at €170mm based on a recent historical wind power transaction with implied EV/ MW of 1.41x;
- mds, is largest re-insurance broker in Portugal with strong growth via acquisitions into international markets. I assume peer group multiple of 3.1x revenue multiple on €13mm in 2006 sales for mds division and 1.2x €19mm 2006 revenue for Sonae Re the groups captive reinsurer. Further upside from Brokers link which operates an international network of insurance brokers;
- Various other assets to which we ascribe no value in base case including hotels, residential developments, project & facility management, health clubs, seed and risk capital, transportation services, car dealerships and energy distribution;

Using the above assumptions I derive a value for Sonae Capital between €2.0bn - €2.5bn.

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